Description

This analysis provides a forecast of BTC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-09-28 94046.670952 99157.281174 104264.649351 109748.338898 115465.944293 121248.183530 127534.279423
2025-10-05 86274.896790 94140.926549 102218.505891 111122.835059 120652.447416 130534.757142 141546.820859
2025-10-12 80819.885309 90610.227679 100880.474959 112435.904047 125053.245361 138389.791868 153530.112728
2025-10-19 76267.566019 87480.964175 99456.240302 113161.340157 128375.507931 144710.202138 163536.656441
2025-10-26 72185.096519 84486.251010 97831.641589 113333.722579 130791.661490 149789.703897 171971.338288
2025-11-02 68897.084897 82118.491376 96666.537227 113791.581868 133324.533829 154834.816527 180236.779969
2025-11-09 65754.160519 79710.159880 95269.176897 113809.911007 135206.064420 159024.968509 187444.911879
2025-11-16 63662.819950 78375.876581 94975.696519 114977.066520 138302.788378 164523.183112 196097.753811
2025-11-23 61067.179346 76316.394700 93720.990124 114917.164282 139886.852910 168216.780821 202631.591056
2025-11-30 59617.496974 75528.540562 93879.860684 116445.627623 143270.986423 173960.231756 211533.500131
2025-12-07 58006.344116 74465.180364 93641.493198 117441.516018 145981.051287 178891.293022 219484.252211
2025-12-14 55995.079155 72831.773805 92645.816456 117463.152597 147477.446914 182357.652023 225693.096129
2025-12-21 54125.332091 71323.561736 91765.172689 117600.784088 149109.875807 186006.593669 232172.912419
2025-12-28 53219.616407 70970.258101 92260.383932 119389.898590 152729.107911 192037.272164 241534.664730
2026-01-04 52218.287605 70452.053759 92516.049360 120857.014284 155942.408740 197584.464554 250343.394975
2026-01-11 50950.898145 69547.602575 92250.086359 121643.187607 158297.210912 202086.353647 257901.353817
2026-01-18 49473.050042 68322.186764 91536.319064 121829.739648 159880.395296 205632.722477 264298.001716
2026-01-25 48217.243417 67339.102316 91089.036053 122316.315960 161811.138027 209592.604402 271206.327462
2026-02-01 46816.227962 66121.288350 90302.209436 122335.940900 163128.818963 212781.791446 277166.485304
2026-02-08 46028.695970 65680.710190 90486.814432 123574.185566 165971.080644 217861.208314 285485.956319
2026-02-15 44714.959557 64502.012082 89682.287237 123510.648881 167139.470462 220844.978459 291203.034226
2026-02-22 44180.497320 64345.096613 90190.371545 125131.965342 170453.942058 226524.683165 300317.833470
2026-03-01 43436.717202 63880.899950 90275.551068 126188.230788 173037.981054 231292.416241 308311.868365